Concerns about job losses, foreclosures, and the “ratchet down” effect of TABOR on municipal budgets, are negatives for the southern Colorado economy, according to two University of Colorado at Colorado Springs faculty members.
But the prospect of an estimated 10,000 more troops stationed at Fort Carson in 2009, as well as the return of currently deployed troops, could make 2009 a turnaround year for the local economy, say Tom Zwirlein, professor, Business, and Fred Crowley, associate research professor, Business. Zwirlein and Crowley direct the Southern Colorado Economic Forum, the region’s leading economic analysis.
Beginning at 7 a.m. Oct. 10 at the Antlers Hilton Hotel, 4 South Cascade Ave., Zwirlein and Crowley will share data collected during the past year, as well as predictions for the future, as part of the Twelfth Annual Southern Colorado Economic Forum. Sponsored by the university and its College of Business in cooperation with several local businesses, the forum is expected to draw more than 500 business and community leaders anxious to hear predictions for the future and to learn how local economic policy can be shaped.
Last year, El Paso County gained only 288 jobs while continuing a downward trend of employment in manufacturing and telecommunications, Zwirlein said. Since 2001, almost 15,000 jobs representing $817 million has been lost from the local economy in the manufacturing and telecommunications sectors.
“The local employment base shifted to an economy that is less dependent on a limited number of large, well-paying employers to an economy that is increasingly dependent on small firms,” Crowley said. “The advantage of small firms is the economy tends to be more stable. But this lower volatility appears to be accompanied by lower wage levels.”
As a result of lower incomes, local government tax collections will fall. Lower collections, combined with a resetting of base budgets – the so-called “ratchet down” effect of TABOR – will result in declining city and county government services.
On the positive side, Zwirlein and Crowley believe home foreclosures will be somewhat reduced in 2009 if the mortgage troubles on Wall Street subside and if the additional troops expected at Fort Carson materialize. Single-family home construction will begin a modest rebound later in 2009.
The presentation of data is one component of the forum. A panel of experts that includes CU President Bruce Benson, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and El Pomar Foundation President Bill Hybl will discuss the importance of creating public-private partnerships in the Pikes Peak region. Another session will feature Colorado State Treasurer Cary Kennedy and business and legal experts discussing Colorado tax policy.
Registration for the conference is $75. Spaces must be reserved by October 6. For more information, visit www.SouthernColoradoEconomicForum.com.
UCCS, located on Austin Bluffs Parkway in northeast Colorado Springs, is the fastest growing university in Colorado, and one of the fastest growing universities in the nation. The University offers 30 bachelor’s degrees, 18 masters’, and four doctoral degrees. The campus enrolls about 8,000 students annually.